Richard Heinberg from the US Postcarbon Institute sees an
inevitable end to the exponential growth we have seen in GDP per capita,
population and energy consumption since the start of the industrial
revolution. He sees the present global
financial crisis with its unsustainable debt levels signalling a sobering new
economic reality.
In considering the impossibility of continued growth, he
examines three major factors: energy, debt and climate change.
Developed countries spend only 10% of their GDP on energy,
but everything in the modern world depends on it: as he notes, once you’ve
turned off the petrol pumps and cut off the electricity, everything stops in
first world countries. Since the start of the industrial revolution we have
substituted the use of renewable sources of energy with the use of immensely
energy–rich but unrenewable fossil fuels, on which we rely for transport,
trade, and this has generated the ensuing “economic growth” we have all been
led to believe is essential.
More people plus more consumption leads to more energy use
which is unsustainable. Spikes in oil
prices are usually followed by recession which then chokes economic growth. We are faced with a Catch-22 situation in
which, because oil is becoming increasingly difficult to extract, the industry
needs high prices (over $100 US per barrel) to justify its continued
production. However, if the oil price stays over $100 US per barrel, economic
recession results, as transport is affected and trade slows or stops.
He regards global debt as a direct consequence of the oil
boom which allowed mass production of all kinds of “stuff” at cheap rates. In
order to sell the products, artificial needs and systems to support the
fulfilment of these needs were created: advertising, planned obsolescence and
consumer credit. In order to support the
interest payments on the growing debt, endless economic growth became a
necessity.
Richard gave a graphic illustration of the impossibility of
sustaining growth indefinitely. He cited the “impossible hamster” example.
Hamsters double their body weight on a weekly basis in infancy. If a hamster
continued to do this for the whole first year of its life, it would weigh
several billion tons by the end of the year as a result of its exponential
growth. Until recently, China’s economy has been growing by 10% per year. This
represents a doubling time of 7 years. In other words, in seven years, China would
need twice as many resources as it does now. In fourteen years, it would need
four times as many. Played out in every world economy, the impossibility of
sustaining this on one finite planet becomes very obvious.
We are now facing the limits of cheap oil and debt. Water is increasingly becoming the true
‘blue chip’. We are seeing increasing
inequality which in some countries is already leading to social instability.
Heinberg regards GDP as a perverse indicator of economic
success as it measures consumption which may be detrimental to the environment
and could be the result of war or natural disaster. Sovereign Assurance is developing a
well-being index for New Zealand which better measures aspects such as
environmental impact.
Climate change is linked to our dependence on non-renewable
fossil fuels with GHG emissions continuing to increase. Global warming is well
documented and there is an increasing incidence of severe weather events, with
all their associated costs to society.
So this is the global picture which will impact on New
Zealand - and Hamilton - over the next
few years.
What might we do to anticipate the future - to be proactive rather than reactive?
We should be developing economic resilience to absorb
shocks: a ‘steady state’ economy. This
would involve a move away from the long supply chains of globalisation towards
more local and more dispersed systems. We should use our renewable energy
sources wisely and reduce our reliance on non renewable energy.
·
As fewer people are able to drive cars due to
cost and unavailability of fuel, we will need walkable cities and public
transport systems.
·
We need to encourage the building of homes and
commercial buildings that heat and cool themselves – passive structures that
need little or no external energy
input.
·
We should be developing small-scale local food
systems, and training our citizens in the arts of food production and
preservation.
·
We should be encouraging alternative currencies,
worker cooperatives, and any other options that produce stronger, more
self-sufficient communities.
We have many positives to draw on, including our innovative
can-do approach, community spirit, creative people, and temperate climate.
Questions from the large and attentive audience included
querying the government’s lack of leadership and action on these issues.
